The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news around exchange rate policy. The longer Egypt delays shifting towards a flexible exchange rate, the bigger the risk of a more disorderly adjustment down the road. Elsewhere, the devastating earthquake in Morocco has had an enormous human impact, but the economic impact could be limited. And finally, Saudi Arabia’s cautious approach to oil output means we will be revising our oil price and production forecasts for 2024.
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