The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to run up against fiscal realities and could lead to tough decisions regarding Pemex. Elsewhere, the raft of February inflation figures published this week shows that core inflation remains stubbornly high in much of the region and supports our generally hawkish interest rate forecasts. That said, we doubt other central banks will follow Peru’s in pausing its easing cycle in response to higher-than-expected inflation.
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