Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: In the tariff crosshairs Parts of Latin America have been in President Trump’s firing line over the past week. While there’s uncertainty over exactly what tariffs Mexico could face (if they are imposed tomorrow, as Trump has... 31st January 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs, transit fees, and terrorists The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America plenty to fret about. The 25% import tariff threatened on Mexico (as well as Canada) would, if implemented, hit the... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s market meltdown Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s challenging budget, G20 summit The sharp reduction in the budget deficit envisaged in Mexico’s draft budget for 2025 will have been welcomed as a sign that the new Sheinbaum administration is taking fiscal discipline seriously. But... 22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep’s fiscal worries, Chile’s deficit, Brazil’s upgrade The decision by Colombia’s central bank to maintain rather than step up the pace of easing at this week’s policy meeting suggests that officials there are increasingly worried about the fiscal... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
