The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating tensions with Washington. The imposition of counter-tariffs did not force concessions from the US. However, some countries did succeed in getting tariffs lifted as part of wider deals to reform trade agreements, increase purchases of US goods, or support Washington in other policy areas, such as border control. The objectives of US trade policy could be very different under a second Trump administration, though, and it may be harder for governments to strike deals to avoid higher tariffs this time.
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