Global Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Rising yields risk macro fallout If sustained, rising bond yields add to downside risks to economic growth. The potential direct effects on real activity are greatest in the US. But higher yields in other DMs could limit how far... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with industrial weakness in December The manufacturing PMIs overstated the weakness of industrial activity in 2024 but, at face value, their decline throughout most of the world in December suggests that the sector has entered 2025 on a... 2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs probably overstating extent of US outperformance The latest batch of PMIs suggests that the US economy is growing strongly while Europe is stagnating or contracting. The US economy is no doubt growing more strongly than its advanced economy peers... 16th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s president declares martial law The declaration of martial law by Korea’s president is an extraordinary step that seems likely to trigger either the suspension of Constitutional democracy in Korea or the president’s own rapid... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker growth in most DMs The latest flash PMIs suggest that while industry continues to struggle across advanced economies, services activity is now slowing in Europe too. While reduced political uncertainty seems to have... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs? The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating... 20th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
