Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs probably overstating extent of US outperformance The latest batch of PMIs suggests that the US economy is growing strongly while Europe is stagnating or contracting. The US economy is no doubt growing more strongly than its advanced economy peers... 16th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s president declares martial law The declaration of martial law by Korea’s president is an extraordinary step that seems likely to trigger either the suspension of Constitutional democracy in Korea or the president’s own rapid... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker growth in most DMs The latest flash PMIs suggest that while industry continues to struggle across advanced economies, services activity is now slowing in Europe too. While reduced political uncertainty seems to have... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs? The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating... 20th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Global Economics Update PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although... 4th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro & market implications of the US election We held online Drop-In sessions with clients this week to discuss how we factor the US election into our thinking on the macro and market outlook for the US and other parts of the world. This Update... 24th October 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
