Taking stock of the European natural gas market

European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in the near term.
Kieran Tompkins Assistant Economist
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OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.)

OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year.

18 January 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks slumped last week, reflecting a partial recovery in demand. However, we think demand will remain under pressure as COVID-19 cases rise in the US and as economic growth slows.

12 January 2022

Energy Update

Energy prices to fall from 2021’s highs

We see energy prices broadly falling this year as slower global economic growth should cool demand growth, but low stocks of many fuels mean prices will remain historically high and volatile for some time.

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Metals Watch

Higher inflation won’t stop the gold price from falling

In this Metals Watch, we revisit the theoretical relationship between the price of gold and inflation, before assessing how this relationship has held up throughout history. The key takeaway is that although gold is an effective long-term hedge against inflation, its effectiveness at shorter horizons depends on how long-term expectations for inflation and monetary policy evolve. We think that long-dated real yields will rise somewhat over the next few years, which should be enough to pull down the gold price.

17 November 2021

Precious Metals Update

Palladium outlook brightest once auto sector rebounds

The well-documented shortages of semiconductors have slammed the brakes on global vehicle production. As a result, the near-term prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) demand in autocatalysts have been dented. It is only once a meaningful recovery in auto output takes hold that demand for PGMs will pick up once again. But the likelihood is that semiconductor shortages rumble on for a while longer yet.

25 October 2021

Precious Metals Update

Dim outlook for the silver price

We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of years.

7 October 2021
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