Global Economics Update

​​Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​

President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Peak oil debate slightly misses the point

The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only...

14th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

US energy security to impede its energy transition

The US economy has persistently outperformed its peers for over a century, and as our Spotlight series argues, will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. More recently, the US has also...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand

The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025

At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

US shale boom approaching a peak

Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs

The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a...

14th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Energy Update

Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply

Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough...

30th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

Japan’s LNG demand to sink; Korea’s to fall more slowly

A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one...

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications

There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving...

15th April 2024 · 4 mins read