Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) and other surveys for March confirm that the prospect of fiscal stimulus is boosting sentiment in Germany and outweighing concerns about US tariffs for now. But... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Germany close to releasing the brake – all aboard? A big spending plan nears in Germany, but that might not mean higher yields or a stronger euro. 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fiscal spending shift worsens the German property outlook Events of the past week or so have worsened the outlook for German commercial property. While more government spending could marginally boost rents, the higher outlook for interest rates will outweigh... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German fiscal announcement The announcement by Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, that the parties which are likely to form the next government have agreed to substantially boost defence and infrastructure... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany (states), France & Spain Flash Inflation (Feb.) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation dropped back in February, and that core inflation might have finally started to come down more significantly. (Euro-zone data... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Federal Election There was never any doubt that the centre right CDU would come out on top of the German federal election and that its leader Friedrich Merz would become the next German Chancellor . The first exit... 23rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
