Europe Economics Update German politics: good intentions but challenges ahead This week’s coalition agreement sets the stage for a substantial fiscal stimulus which should eventually get Germany’s economy growing again. But the new government will have to deal with new... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Trump tariffs to drag on German industrial leasing Trump’s tariffs have darkened the outlook for industrial demand across Europe, but Germany looks more exposed than most. Even if the paused 20% reciprocal tariff on EU imports is not reinstated, the... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (February) The fall in German industrial production in February left it very weak. With US demand generating around 7% of German manufacturing value added, the sector will be hit hard by US tariffs. And higher... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Large variation in long-term office demand prospects across the euro-zone Five years since the onset of the pandemic, the share of remote working in the euro-zone has generally increased by more than we had expected back in 2020. But office-based employment growth has also... 2nd April 2025 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Defence and growth in Germany: a closer look We think Germany is likely to raise defence spending by around 1.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027. With the government unlikely to cut other spending much and the defence industry well placed to raise... 2nd April 2025 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (March) National inflation figures released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in March. Services inflation probably also fell, which will please ECB officials. 31st March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) and other surveys for March confirm that the prospect of fiscal stimulus is boosting sentiment in Germany and outweighing concerns about US tariffs for now. But... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Germany close to releasing the brake – all aboard? A big spending plan nears in Germany, but that might not mean higher yields or a stronger euro. 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fiscal spending shift worsens the German property outlook Events of the past week or so have worsened the outlook for German commercial property. While more government spending could marginally boost rents, the higher outlook for interest rates will outweigh... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
