Capital Daily

Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets

The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Spain’s labour market sizzling

Spain’s economy is outperforming the euro-zone as a whole, and the difference is also evident in the labour market, which is still tightening at a decent pace in Spain. There now appears to be little...

21st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

The costs of Spain’s floods and future climate events

The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France and Spain GDP (Q3 2024)

Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain

We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely...

23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets

Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels...

10th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France & Spain HICP (September 2024)

September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target.

27th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Your questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session this week to discuss the outlook for the euro-zone. (See a recording here.) This Update addresses some of the questions that we received, including some that we didn...

25th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

Economy slowing again

The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical...

18th September 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany and Spain HICP (Aug.)

Inflation figures for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation may have fallen to the ECB’s 2% target in August and that the core rate edged down. That paves the way for a September...

29th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Markets Update

No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads

While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence

We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany and Spain HICP (July)

The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024)

National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter.

30th July 2024 · 1 min read