Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the war and Western military and financial aid. One flashpoint for Ukraine is the upcoming US election – we published an in-depth report this week and held an online briefing highlighting the risk that a Trump presidency could result in a scaling back of Western support for Ukraine. Elsewhere, data out of Hungary showed that wage pressures have re-accelerated, which presents an upside risk to inflation.
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