The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is likely to extend into the first half of 2024 but fizzle out by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, despite all the talk about ‘derisking’ from China, the country’s share of global trade looks to have risen last year. It remains to be seen if it can hold on to those gains, however, given that some of the recent props to China’s export growth appear to be temporary.
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