China Economics Weekly Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market... 10th October 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Early signals of Five-Year Plan priorities China's 15th Five-Year Plan will be finalised at the Fourth Plenum later this month. There are limited signs so far of a significant shift in the leadership's priorities – it seems likely that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ceding developing country perks is a geopolitical play China's decision this week to forgo its developing country benefits at the WTO won't have significant economic implications, not least because the WTO has little power these days to compel members to... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly MoF signals that fiscal policy will stay supportive The fiscal deficit across China’s two main budgets expanded almost 40% y/y over the past three months. This isn’t sustainable, and the pace of fiscal loosening will almost certainly slow over the... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bond yields rising, tariff barriers climbing We're sceptical that the government's supply-side reform will succeed in pulling the economy out of deflation, suggesting the recent rise in government bond yields won't be sustained. And, while... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export resilience is a symptom of domestic weakness We are re-sending this Weekly due to a technical error. Apologies for any inconvenience caused. Policymakers in China seem more concerned about the overcapacity problem than the trade war with the US... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China spurns Nvidia as it plans domestic AI boom Rather than welcoming improved access to Nvidia chips, Chinese officials are discouraging purchases and focusing on boosting domestic chip output. This dovetails with a wider AI+ plan, fleshed out... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Millions are about to see their take-home pay fall From 1st September onwards, companies in China and their employees will no longer be able to avoid making social security contributions. This will pave the way for higher pay-outs over the medium-term... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right direction The new consumer loan subsidy programme announced by the Ministry of Finance this week is unlikely to significantly drive up household spending. But may be a sign that China's leadership is finally... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Semiconductor” tariffs threaten more than just chips Trump's plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals isn't a big threat at face value – chips and pharma only make up a small fraction of China's exports to the US. But there is a risk... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: The new US tariff landscape, fiscal constraints The new reciprocal tariff rates mean that Chinese exports will become more competitive in the US. But planned duties on transhipped goods are a threat, albeit a less serious one than some think... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Mega-dam won’t power the economy, trade talks resume While the start of work on China's colossal new hydropower project in Tibet sent infrastructure stocks surging this week, construction won't do much to boost the economy. Meanwhile, US-China trade... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Warmer US-China relations, foreigners staying away US-China relations are warming, with growing talk of a Xi-Trump summit and gestures of goodwill on both sides. Further de-escalation, including cooperation on fentanyl, could pave the way to a Phase... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Tackling overcapacity will require demand-side stimulus China’s leadership appears to be embarking on a campaign of supply-side measures aimed at tackling overcapacity and deflation. But local officials may balk at the economic cost of implementing them... 11th July 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China-US trade rerouting in Trump’s crosshairs Given its trade truce with the US, China isn’t at much risk of being hit with higher duties when the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs ends next week. But Trump’s trade deals with the UK and... 4th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China “deal” moves forward but risks remain The trade “deal” reached in Geneva and London has now been finalised and signed. The exact terms have yet to be made public but appear to be limited in scope and still leave economic ties in far worse... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
