China Economics Weekly China Weekly: PBOC promises to restore growth are falling flat China's bond market is sending a message that China's policymakers are unwilling to hear: their policy interventions are not improving the long-run outlook. 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: US chip controls tightened, China retaliates Updated US export controls released this week will further restrict China’s access to advanced chipmaking technology, but significant loopholes remain. China retaliated immediately with exports bans... 6th December 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal spending jumps, but boost will be short-lived Fiscal spending accelerated sharply in October, boosting both retail sales and infrastructure investment. It will remain strong in the near-term given that local governments still have plenty of... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
China Economics Weekly How would China retaliate? China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Baby steps to support housing won’t drive a turnaround While the Ministry of Housing introduced no significant new measures and gave little additional detail on plans to support the property sector during Thursday's press conference, it did announce an... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to look for at the MoF press conference All eyes are on the Ministry of Finance's crucial press conference tomorrow morning. We think this year’s growth target is just about achievable if local governments can be pushed to fully deploy... 11th October 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC resists CNY appreciation, EU votes on EV tariffs In a marked shift following a decade of one-sided intervention, the PBOC is now leaning heavily on its daily fixing rate to limit the renminbi's appreciation. We think this is an attempt to maintain... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus timetable, bank capital injections Chinese equities have soared in response to this week's stimulus announcements, but it will take longer for the real economy to respond. While the PBOC has already reduced bank funding costs, rate... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fed pivot offers limited relief, holiday spending falls flat Fed rate cuts will be welcomed by Chinese policymakers as they make it easier for property developers to service their dollar debt and reduce the need for PBOC intervention to defend the renminbi. But... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Retirement age increase, import slowdown The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
