China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Private sector support, property prices President Xi's meeting with top tech leaders underscores a shift back to a more constructive attitude toward private firms that has been underway since 2023. Meanwhile, data out this week showed that... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly More support for developers, while marriages plunge The decline in the number of marriages in China that was revealed this week isn’t just due to there being fewer eligible people. The rate at which young adults are marrying has halved over the past... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Holiday data softer than headlines suggest Consumer activity over the Lunar New Year holiday was widely interpreted as strong. But much like the latest PMIs, it is actually consistent with a slowdown in growth at the start of 2025. Visit our... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Economics Weekly: China’s AI shock, Year of the Snake The launch of DeepSeek's new AI model had US markets reeling at the start of this week, but we don't think it’s a sign that China's AI technology is poised to overtake the US. And while snake years... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Trump’s trade plans still unclear, service sector improving We still have little clarity on the timing or size of any tariff increases President Trump is planning to impose on China. For now, we are sticking with our assumption that a 60% tariff will be... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US tightens export controls, births rise The final export control measures of Joe Biden's presidency further restrict China's access to advanced AI technology and mark another escalation in geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, although... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbi A sharp depreciation of the renminbi this week took the currency to the edge of the trading band that the PBOC has been holding steady since Donald Trump's election. The PBOC is likely to ramp-up its... 10th January 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: PBOC promises to restore growth are falling flat China's bond market is sending a message that China's policymakers are unwilling to hear: their policy interventions are not improving the long-run outlook. 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: US chip controls tightened, China retaliates Updated US export controls released this week will further restrict China’s access to advanced chipmaking technology, but significant loopholes remain. China retaliated immediately with exports bans... 6th December 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal spending jumps, but boost will be short-lived Fiscal spending accelerated sharply in October, boosting both retail sales and infrastructure investment. It will remain strong in the near-term given that local governments still have plenty of... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
China Economics Weekly How would China retaliate? China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
