Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March, the CAP suggests that growth last quarter slipped below 4% y/y for the first time since the initial re-opening from COVID-19 lockdowns. With the economy faring worse than we had expected even before the hit from US tariffs, we now anticipate growth of just 3.5% this year.
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