Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 27th November 2024, 3:00PM GMT An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty. The president-elect’s campaign pledges on everything from Iran and Israel to...
China Activity Monitor CAP: Financial sector drives a strong expansion Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main... 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support won’t be enough to drive growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed in August, with construction seeing the sharpest deceleration. Alongside today’s monetary easing, an uptick in fiscal spending will help keep the... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boost Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But... 29th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth faltering as domestic weakness persists Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth slows but near-term prospects still good Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic growth weakened in May on the back of a fall in services activity. Industry also slowed, following months of outperformance. We doubt this marks the... 24th June 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth holding up, but on unstable footing Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in... 24th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Still buoyed by policy support Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery continuing at the end of 2023 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector continuing gradual recovery Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic recovery is continuing as the service sector makes up further lost ground. With policy support still flowing and consumers feeling less... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth softened at the start of Q4 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy was still making headway last month, though it appears to have lost some steam. Downside risks continue to linger, particularly in the property... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support underpins reacceleration Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy has returned to growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy regained some ground in July, following a contraction in June. But the big picture is that output has levelled off recently and that the... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery goes into reverse Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of... 27th July 2023 · 4 mins read
