Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected, which is likely to delay interest cuts. Our GDP growth forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus. Debt restructuring talks in Ghana and Zambia are making progress but are still taking too long and will heighten fears on what may come for other countries at risk of default, such as Angola and Mozambique.
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