US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2024) The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump still favourite, as Biden withdraws After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris... 21st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rise in manufacturing output in June was better than we expected based on the small fall in hours worked, but it owed a lot to a rebound in motor vehicle production, which seems unlikely to be... 17th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (June) Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July adds to the evidence that consumers are increasingly struggling with high interest rates. Although the link between... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (June) Ignore the fact that core PPI increased by a slightly bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m in June and that May was revised to a 0.3% rise from unchanged. The PPI components that feed into the Fed’s... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (June) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in core CPI in June strengthens the case for a September rate cut although, while a lot still depends on the PPI data due tomorrow, our initial estimate is that the core... 11th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (May 2024) The strong rebound in manufacturing output in May was better than we expected but, given the softness of the earlier retail sales release, it does not change the big picture that second-quarter GDP... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
