US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The second consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in February leaves Fed officials some way from attaining the “greater confidence” needed to begin cutting interest rates. The annual rate of core... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2024) The 275,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February may, at face value, add weight to the Fed’s view that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates, but the downward revisions to previous months’... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2024) The January trade data point to a potentially larger drag on first-quarter GDP growth than we had assumed, albeit mainly because imports look to have been stronger than previously believed. 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to stick to his previous script in his testimony to Congress today and, assuming we are right that the January strength in core inflation will prove to be a blip, his... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The unexpected fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February still leaves it on a gradual upward trend, but the more important news for the Fed is that there is still no sign that a material rebound... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices - Annual Revision to Seasonal Factors 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
