US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 353,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates why the Fed is apparently in no rush to start cutting interest rates and kills off any remaining chance of a cut as soon as March. Even if... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The solid rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in January, from 47.1, indicates that the downturn in the sector is fading and appears to justify the Fed’s view that it can wait a little... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Dec.) The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q4) Although GDP growth came in hotter than expect in the fourth quarter, underlying inflation continued to slow, with annualised core PCE inflation running at the 2% target in the fourth quarter. The... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The muted rise in manufacturing output in December shows that the sector continues to struggle, even as consumption growth remains strong. 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Dec.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in December may have been supported by the unseasonably mild weather, but it still means there is no sign that households are buckling under the pressure of higher... 17th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Dec.) The slightly bigger-than-expected 216,000 gain in non-farm payrolls (consensus estimate was 170,000) in December coupled with a second consecutive 0.4% m/m gain in average hourly earnings means that... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The confirmation that core PCE prices rose by just 0.06% m/m in November means that, over the past six months, core inflation has been running at an annualised pace of just 1.9%. Adding in the further... 22nd December 2023 · 2 mins read
