US Rapid Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The bigger than expected 9.9% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a massive rebound in aircraft orders. Excluding transport, core orders fell by 0.2% m/m in July, while... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (July 30-31) The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2024) The 818,000 downward revision implied by the preliminary benchmark estimate to the non-farm payroll data were roughly in line with what we had expected based on the earlier data implied by the... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug. 2024) The small rebound in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in August was entirely driven by recent political developments, and still leaves it below its level for most of this year. At... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The 0.15% m/m increase in all-items CPI and the 0.17% increase in core CPI in July suggest that, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter, the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (July) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged core PPI for July is not quite as good as it looks, but it is nevertheless consistent with the Fed’s preferred core PCE prices measure... 13th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Jun. 2024) There was little sign of weakening domestic demand in the international trade data for June, with imports rising. Exports rose even more sharply, causing the trade deficit to narrow, although the... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (July 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.4 isn’t much to get excited about given it remains weak, but the corresponding increase in the employment index should soothe concerns that the labour... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jul.) The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and sharper rise in the unemployment rate makes a September interest rate cut inevitable and will increase speculation that the Fed will kick off its loosening... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2024) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July raises the risk that GDP growth will lose momentum in the third quarter, and the plunge in the employment index will add to concerns that the... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (July) There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q2) The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (June) Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target... 26th July 2024 · 1 min read
