US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (May 2024) The strong rebound in manufacturing output in May was better than we expected but, given the softness of the earlier retail sales release, it does not change the big picture that second-quarter GDP... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (May) The soft May retail sales data support our view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth remains a little lacklustre in the second quarter too. Our forecast now stands at 1.9%. 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a seven-month low of 65.6 in June, from 69.1, suggests that households are now struggling more under the weight of higher... 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (May) With the May producer price data also coming in weaker than expected, we now estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by only 0.11% m/m last month, which would take the annual core PCE inflation... 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (June 11-12) The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (May) Core CPI increased by a more modest 0.2%m/m in May and, although we still need to see the PPI data tomorrow, it looks like core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased by significantly... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 272,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May will soothe recent fears that the bottom had suddenly dropped out of the economy. With average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% m/m... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr. 2024) The April trade data suggest that net trade is on track to weigh on GDP growth again this quarter, but that is primarily due to continued strength in imports, which paints a better picture of domestic... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (May 2024) The rise in the ISM services index to 53.8 in May, from 49.4, meant that the weighted ISM index rebounded last month, despite a decline in the manufacturing index. That still leaves it consistent with... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2024) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index in May adds to the sense that the economy is losing momentum, while the drop back in the prices paid index should soothe concerns about a potential renewed rise... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Apr.) As expected, the PCE deflator data suggest that, although not quite as bad as the first three months of the year, inflation was still running above target in April. At the same time, however, the real... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
