US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (July 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.4 isn’t much to get excited about given it remains weak, but the corresponding increase in the employment index should soothe concerns that the labour... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jul.) The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and sharper rise in the unemployment rate makes a September interest rate cut inevitable and will increase speculation that the Fed will kick off its loosening... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2024) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July raises the risk that GDP growth will lose momentum in the third quarter, and the plunge in the employment index will add to concerns that the... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (July) There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q2) The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (June) Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target... 26th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2024) The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump still favourite, as Biden withdraws After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris... 21st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rise in manufacturing output in June was better than we expected based on the small fall in hours worked, but it owed a lot to a rebound in motor vehicle production, which seems unlikely to be... 17th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (June) Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July adds to the evidence that consumers are increasingly struggling with high interest rates. Although the link between... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (June) Ignore the fact that core PPI increased by a slightly bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m in June and that May was revised to a 0.3% rise from unchanged. The PPI components that feed into the Fed’s... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (June) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in core CPI in June strengthens the case for a September rate cut although, while a lot still depends on the PPI data due tomorrow, our initial estimate is that the core... 11th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
