US Rapid Response Employment Report (Mar.) The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2024) The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing. 15th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb. 2024) In line with the rebound in retail sales, manufacturing output was boosted in February by the unwinding of the hit from the winter snowstorms that weighed on production in January. Even as that boost... 15th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Feb.) The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that the strength of consumers... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The second consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in February leaves Fed officials some way from attaining the “greater confidence” needed to begin cutting interest rates. The annual rate of core... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2024) The 275,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February may, at face value, add weight to the Fed’s view that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates, but the downward revisions to previous months’... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2024) The January trade data point to a potentially larger drag on first-quarter GDP growth than we had assumed, albeit mainly because imports look to have been stronger than previously believed. 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to stick to his previous script in his testimony to Congress today and, assuming we are right that the January strength in core inflation will prove to be a blip, his... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The unexpected fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February still leaves it on a gradual upward trend, but the more important news for the Fed is that there is still no sign that a material rebound... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
