US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices - Annual Revision to Seasonal Factors 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 353,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates why the Fed is apparently in no rush to start cutting interest rates and kills off any remaining chance of a cut as soon as March. Even if... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The solid rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in January, from 47.1, indicates that the downturn in the sector is fading and appears to justify the Fed’s view that it can wait a little... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Dec.) The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q4) Although GDP growth came in hotter than expect in the fourth quarter, underlying inflation continued to slow, with annualised core PCE inflation running at the 2% target in the fourth quarter. The... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
