US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2024) Headline and core durable goods both did better than we expected in April, suggesting that the earlier decline in corporate borrowing costs may be feeding through. Nonetheless, with growth in... 24th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Apr 20 - May 1) The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting are, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output in April , together with the downward revision to the March gain, from 0.5% to 0.2%, continues the run of weaker activity data and will further solidify... 16th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) We would caution against jumping to the conclusion that consumers are starting to crack under high interest rates, despite the disappointing retail sales data for April, as some payback always seemed... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly more modest 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI in April was even better than it looked, particularly given that we already know the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Apr.) The bigger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increases in both all items and core final demand producer prices in April were mainly due to downward revisions to earlier months, with the 0.2% m/m gains in March... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Confidence (May) The renewed slump in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to a six-month low of 67.4 in May, from 77.2, is hard to explain given that gasoline prices are now falling again, the stock... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Apr.) April’s employment report was weaker across the board; with employment growth slowing back to the pace from last fall, the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% and average hourly earnings growth... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The trade deficit narrowed slightly in March to $69.4bn, from $69.5bn, with exports down by 2.0% m/m and imports falling by 1.6%. The $5.1bn decline in goods exports included a $1.2bn drop in civilian... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (May) The Fed admitted in the statement issued after today’s FOMC meeting that “in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the… 2% inflation objective”. Otherwise, today’s statement... 1st May 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index back below the theoretical 50.0 no-change level in April suggests that the nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector may already have gone into reverse... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q1) The persistence of wage growth is another reason for the Fed to take its time on rate cuts. According to the first-quarter employment cost index, civilian wages increased at a 1.1% non-annualised pace... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Mar.) The slightly bigger-than-expected 3.7% annualised first-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator was principally because January’s gain was revised up to 0.50% from 0.45%. Nevertheless, the 0.32%... 26th April 2024 · 1 min read
