US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in industrial production in December is consistent with the recent improvement in the survey evidence. However, we do not think this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in the... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Dec) The 0.4% m/m increase in retail sales in December was a little weaker than expected, with the consensus forecast as high as 0.6%, but this was actually a strong report that boosts our fourth-quarter... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.23% m/m increase in core CPI in December appears consistent with a below-target 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. Although that would leave core PCE inflation... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Dec. 2024) On the surface, the weaker than expected 0.2% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged level of core final demand PPI in December seems encouraging, but they mask some price jumps in a few of... 14th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan. 2025) The drop in the expectations index of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey in January and the accompanying jump in inflation expectations suggest that consumers are becoming more... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected 256,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December and drop back in the unemployment rate to 4.1% supports the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of rate cuts and has heightened... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed worried by potential impact of Trump policy agenda After Chair Jerome Powell made a big fuss about claiming in last November’s press conference that the Fed wouldn’t speculate about what policies the incoming Trump administration will adopt, the... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Dec. 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index in December will soothe concerns that the services sector is starting to run out of steam. Less positively, the surge in the prices paid index to a nearly two... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Nov) The US trade deficit widened again to $78.2bn in November, from $73.6bn, as imports rebounded by 3.4%, outpacing a 2.7% recovery in exports, with shipments in both directions recovering after the... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec. 2024) Building on the November rebound, the further small rise in the ISM manufacturing index in December suggests the sector is starting the year in better shape after a tough 2024. 3rd January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Nov) The 0.11% m/m increase in core PCE prices in November was the smallest gain in six months, although it follows on the heels of two above-target ~0.25% gains in the preceding two months. That November... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec) The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Current Account (Q3) The current account deficit widened to a $310.9bn, or 4.2% of GDP, in the third quarter, up from 3.7% of GDP in the second. Admittedly, the deficit briefly hit 4.6% of GDP in early 2022, when easing... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Nov. 2024) The fall in industrial production in November, despite the partial reversal of the earlier temporary disruptions caused by the hurricanes and strike at Boeing, highlights that the factory sector is... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) The solid rise in retail sales in November was led by vehicle sales but still showed signs of broad-based strength, with control group sales increasing at a healthy pace too. This suggests fourth... 17th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Nov) Ignore the fact that PPI final demand prices increased by a slightly bigger than expected 0.4% m/m in November. The components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE index were universally weak and... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
