US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Nov) The 0.11% m/m increase in core PCE prices in November was the smallest gain in six months, although it follows on the heels of two above-target ~0.25% gains in the preceding two months. That November... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec) The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Current Account (Q3) The current account deficit widened to a $310.9bn, or 4.2% of GDP, in the third quarter, up from 3.7% of GDP in the second. Admittedly, the deficit briefly hit 4.6% of GDP in early 2022, when easing... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Nov. 2024) The fall in industrial production in November, despite the partial reversal of the earlier temporary disruptions caused by the hurricanes and strike at Boeing, highlights that the factory sector is... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) The solid rise in retail sales in November was led by vehicle sales but still showed signs of broad-based strength, with control group sales increasing at a healthy pace too. This suggests fourth... 17th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Nov) Ignore the fact that PPI final demand prices increased by a slightly bigger than expected 0.4% m/m in November. The components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE index were universally weak and... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov) The 0.31% m/m increase in core CPI in November, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 3.3% for a fourth month in a row and pushed the three-month annualised rate up to an eight-month... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec. 2024) While the headline University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains below its average over the first half of the year, the jump in December suggests that household spending growth is likely to... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Nov. 2024) The solid 227,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was driven partly by the reversal of the disruptions that weighed on hiring in October, but still implies that underlying employment growth was... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Nov. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 52.1 in November is not too concerning, given it was driven partly by a slump in the supplier deliveries index, but it does lend some support to our view that GDP... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2024) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November was as expected following recent hurricanes and the end of the Boeing strike, however the breakdown showed the sector is still stuck in a rut... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Oct. 2024) The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q3 2nd Est), Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Oct) October’s income and spending data, due at 10am ET today, could also affect our estimate but, for now, the big drop back in goods imports in October means that we have forth-quarter GDP growth... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed FOMC Minutes (Nov 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-November FOMC meeting, when it slowed the pace of policy loosening with a smaller 25bp cut, tell us little about whether to expect another smaller quarter-point cut at... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Oct. 2024) The fall in manufacturing output in October was driven mainly by temporary disruptions which should soon reverse. Excluding these disruptions, industrial production would have remained unchanged... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) While October’s retail sales data showed underlying weakness and were accompanied by sizable revisions to previous months, the overall impact on consumption growth was modest. The bottom line is that... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
