US Rapid Response US Fed FOMC Minutes (Jan 28th-29th) The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jan. 2025) The rise in industrial production in January is not as good as it looks as it was driven by a weather-related surge in utilities and a further post-strike recovery in aerospace & parts output. 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The large fall in control group retail sales in January, together with the timelier data showing a slump in vehicle sales, suggests that real consumption fell last month. While weather effects were... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump's reciprocal tariffs a bigger deal than universal measure President Trump appears to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10% or 20% on imports from all other countries. But the broad criteria that will be used to assess his new... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US PPI (Jan 2025) Final demand PPI increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m, but the components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price measure were, on the whole, very tame. As a result, we now estimate that... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2025) The 0.45% m/m increase in core CPI in January will, after the spike at this time last year, add to the impression that the price data have a residual seasonality problem. Assuming the producer price... 12th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the line that the Fed was in no hurry to adjust its policy stance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today. Given that inflation remains above target and the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb. 2025) The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for February showed a decline in the headline index alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations, suggesting that consumers are increasingly... 7th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jan. 2025) The softer 143,000 gain in payrolls in January is nothing to be concerned about following the upward revisions to payrolls in November and December, which left the three-month average gain at a near... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Jan. 2025) The fall in the ISM services index to 52.8 in December lends some support to our view that GDP growth will slow in the next couple of quarters, albeit with the caveat that the surveys have proved to... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec. 2024) The trade deficit ballooned to a 3-year high of $98.4bn in December, up from $78.9bn, as imports surged by 3.5% and exports fell by 2.6%. The strength of imports appears largely driven by businesses... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan. 2025) The ISM manufacturing index finally rose back above the theoretical no-change level of 50.0 in January, but the trade war kicking off across the continent means that the recovery is likely to be short... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Dec) December’s personal income and spending report brought news of another strong gain in real consumption, but with price pressures muted. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2024) The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little weaker than the consensus estimate at 2.6%, but expectations would have come down a little after the December advance economic indicators... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
