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US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025)

The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are depressing activity. While the prices paid index is still some way below its pandemic peak, it increased again in March, putting it at a level consistent with a reacceleration in CPI inflation to 4%, even before the full tariff hit.

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