US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Oct. 2024) The fall in manufacturing output in October was driven mainly by temporary disruptions which should soon reverse. Excluding these disruptions, industrial production would have remained unchanged... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) While October’s retail sales data showed underlying weakness and were accompanied by sizable revisions to previous months, the overall impact on consumption growth was modest. The bottom line is that... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2024) The rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, despite uncertainty ahead of the US election, shows that economic developments remain the key driver of confidence in the aggregate... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Productivity & ULC (Q3) The BLS finally incorporated the upward revisions to its labour compensation estimates into the productivity and unit labour costs data, and the results are likely to trigger some inflation anxiety... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Election The presidential election remains too close to call, but Donald Trump does appear to be edging ahead in some of the key swing states. At close to 11.30pm ET, the NYT gives Trump an 91% chance of... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Oct.) The further rise in the ISM services index to a two-year high in October suggests the services sector is continuing to soar, contrasting with the recent weakness in manufacturing. The strong rebound... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Sep. 2024) The trade deficit widened to $84.4bn in September, from an upwardly revised $70.8bn in August, as imports surged ahead of the short-lived port strike in October. 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2024) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 15-month low in October suggests that the sector continued to struggle as hurricanes and the ongoing strike at Boeing disrupted manufacturing activity... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Oct.) The near-complete flatline in payrolls in October was only partly due to disruptions caused by hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Given positive data elsewhere this week, we believe the Fed will look... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Sep 2024) & ECI (Q3 2024) The news on prices was mixed, with the September data showing that the core PCE deflator increased at a slightly faster 0.25% m/m (or 3.0% in 1m annualised terms) and, in part due to some modest... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q3) Despite earlier fears that the US economy was headed for recession, growth continued to out-perform other DMs. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 2.8% annualised, down only trivially from the... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep. 2024) While the fall in durable goods orders in September was mostly due to the volatile transportation components, the decline in underlying capital goods shipments will still drag on business equipment... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong 0.7% m/m rise in control group retail sales in September suggests that consumption growth strengthened to more than 3% annualised last quarter. That said, timelier data show a big drop in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
