US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Aug. 2024) Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in August as the temporary disruptions to production from the previous month were reversed. Together with last month’s solid gain in control group retail sales... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The stronger-than-expected retail sales data for August suggest that, boosted by rapid wealth gains and falling energy prices, consumers continue to spend freely despite the labour market slowdown... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep. 2024) Despite the small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in September, consumer confidence remains in a slump. At face value, weak sentiment points to softer consumer spending... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Aug) The August PPI data provide more encouragement for the Fed that inflation has been tamed. Together the CPI and PPI data point to a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the core PCE deflator last month, with... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in August appears to be consistent with a slightly below-target 0.15% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. But we doubt that modest... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Aug) The 142,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in August was probably just enough to tip the Fed in favour of a measured 25bp rate cut this month, rather than a more dramatic move, but the labour... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Aug. 2024) Although the ISM services index was essentially unchanged in August, that is still something of a relief following the weak ISM manufacturing report earlier this week and the gloomy tone of the Fed's... 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Jul. 2024) The July trade data suggest that net trade will weigh on third-quarter GDP growth, but that is hardly cause for concern when it reflects the continued strength of imports, painting a better picture of... 4th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug. 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was essentially unchanged in August, leaving it consistent with manufacturing output and GDP growth losing momentum in the third quarter, and a sharp drop in the new orders... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Jul.) The July income and spending report shows price pressures remaining muted despite the strength of real consumption. The latter suggests that third-quarter consumption growth will be 3.7%. Even... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The bigger than expected 9.9% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a massive rebound in aircraft orders. Excluding transport, core orders fell by 0.2% m/m in July, while... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (July 30-31) The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2024) The 818,000 downward revision implied by the preliminary benchmark estimate to the non-farm payroll data were roughly in line with what we had expected based on the earlier data implied by the... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug. 2024) The small rebound in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in August was entirely driven by recent political developments, and still leaves it below its level for most of this year. At... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read