US Employment Report Preview Weather effects starting to reverse The weather didn't quite return to seasonal norms in March, but it was nowhere near as bad as it was between December and February. We have pencilled in a gain of 200,000 in payroll employment in... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls once again hit by bad weather A third consecutive month of weak payroll growth in February would raise speculation that the Fed will pause the tapering of its asset purchases. But because any weakness this month was probably due... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather effects fade Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving gradually Our econometric model points to a healthy 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, although we suspect that the unemployment rate was probably unchanged at 7.0%. 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Could we be in for an upside payrolls surprise? The news of a modest 169,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, and the downward revision that cut July's gain to only 104,000, undoubtedly played a key role in the Fed's surprising decision to... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rebound in payroll growth would point to September QE3 taper A rebound in employment growth and an unchanged unemployment rate should reinforce expectations that the Fed will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in September. Our econometric model of non... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fewer than normal auto shutdowns may lift payrolls Our econometric model suggests that the pick-up in jobs growth in June was maintained in July. A rise in payroll employment of 200,000 last month would be the fourth such gain in as many months. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Softer surveys point to more modest monthly job gains The recent weakening in the survey evidence suggests that jobs growth in June may not have quite matched the 175,000 rise in payroll employment in May. But an increase in payrolls of around 150,000... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions improving slightly Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a solid 175,000, in May, although we suspect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5%. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather distortion fades Our econometric model suggests that, although the labour market has weakened since earlier in the year, conditions are not quite as bad as March’s Employment Report suggested. We expect a rebound in... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Effects of sequester hard to see, but likely to be small It’s going to be almost impossible to observe what impact the sequester government spending cuts is having on the labour market. But we expect it will be fairly small. In any case, it is too soon for... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Earnings growth won’t take off Our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 175,000 in February, which would leave employment growing at much the same pace as in recent months. Without a meaningful acceleration in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
