US Employment Report Preview Improving trend reasserts itself Our econometric model implies that the easing injob growth and the rise in the unemployment ratein July were just blips in otherwise improvingtrends. We estimate that payroll employment roseby around... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Surge in part-time employment is not a big concern Our econometric model suggests that non-farmpayroll employment increased by around 225,000in July. That would be smaller than June’s increaseof 288,000, but it would still be consistent withjob growth... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Small firms in the driving seat Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by another healthy 200,000 in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in May. Meanwhile, the recent surge... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Lower jobless claims highlight labour market strength The fall in weekly initial jobless claims to a seven-year low suggests payroll employment grew by around 230,000 in May. Although this may not prevent the unemployment rate from rebounding to 6.4%... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Breaking out above 200,000 The monthly gains in payroll employment may soon rise above the 200,000 that have been the norm for most of the past year. This would be partly due to some catch-up after the recent extreme winter... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather effects starting to reverse The weather didn't quite return to seasonal norms in March, but it was nowhere near as bad as it was between December and February. We have pencilled in a gain of 200,000 in payroll employment in... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls once again hit by bad weather A third consecutive month of weak payroll growth in February would raise speculation that the Fed will pause the tapering of its asset purchases. But because any weakness this month was probably due... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather effects fade Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving gradually Our econometric model points to a healthy 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, although we suspect that the unemployment rate was probably unchanged at 7.0%. 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Could we be in for an upside payrolls surprise? The news of a modest 169,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, and the downward revision that cut July's gain to only 104,000, undoubtedly played a key role in the Fed's surprising decision to... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rebound in payroll growth would point to September QE3 taper A rebound in employment growth and an unchanged unemployment rate should reinforce expectations that the Fed will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in September. Our econometric model of non... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fewer than normal auto shutdowns may lift payrolls Our econometric model suggests that the pick-up in jobs growth in June was maintained in July. A rise in payroll employment of 200,000 last month would be the fourth such gain in as many months. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Softer surveys point to more modest monthly job gains The recent weakening in the survey evidence suggests that jobs growth in June may not have quite matched the 175,000 rise in payroll employment in May. But an increase in payrolls of around 150,000... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions improving slightly Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a solid 175,000, in May, although we suspect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5%. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
