US Employment Report Preview Continued solid gains in payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well. 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Strength of payrolls at odds with broader evidence We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a decent 170,000 in November, flattered by the return of striking GM workers. We wouldn’t take too much comfort from that, however, because recent gains look... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview GM strike to hit payrolls hard We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by just 25,000 in October, mainly reflecting disruption caused by the strike at GM. Even excluding that temporary hit, however, the underlying pace of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a muted 125,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Surveys suggest payrolls will disappoint We estimate that employment growth slowed further in August, with non-farm payrolls rising by a below-consensus 110,000. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions beginning to sour Our model points to a renewed slowdown in payroll employment growth in July to just 145,000, from 224,000. As the economy slows further, we expect a more marked downturn in employment growth later... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market succumbing to economic slowdown Our model points to a subdued 125,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, suggesting that the labour market is succumbing to the broader slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate should remain... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Say hello to our new payroll model Our new model points to a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, although we anticipate a more pronounced slowdown in employment growth over the next few months. The unemployment rate is expected... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Manufacturing slump weighing on payroll growth Our model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 165,000 in April, with the survey-based hiring indicators and the recent contraction in temporary help employment both... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth shifting down the gears We expect payroll growth to rebound to 150,000 in March, from 20,000 the month before, but that would still imply employment gains are now beginning to trend lower. 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Robust payrolls remain a bright spot We anticipate a robust 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, while a post-shutdown rebound in household employment will cause the unemployment rate to drop back to 3.9%. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls will be unaffected by shutdown We expect a solid 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January which, because a bill has already been passed guaranteeing workers back pay when the government reopens, will be largely unaffected by... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains to bounce back Our model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.6%. Base effects mean that annual wage growth probably declined to 2.9%. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment strength supports December rate hike We anticipate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 190,000 in November, following last month’s post-hurricane surge. Hourly earnings growth should hit a near-decade high of 3.2%, clearing the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes may mask the strength of payrolls We estimate that non-farm payroll gains rebounded to 185,000 in October, but this may be skewed by the uncertain impacts of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael. The bigger picture is that... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong employment gains set to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 220,000 in September, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and average hourly earnings posting another decent monthly gain. That would be enough to... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
