US Employment Report Preview Payrolls get back on track We estimate that non-farm payroll employment recovered from last month’s weather-related blip with a robust 185,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate probably ticked back up to 4.6%, but this... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong start to 2017 unlikely to be sustained We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth slowed to a still-healthy 190,000 in March, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7% and annual wage growth holding steady at 2.8%. 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview January strength was no fluke The strength of the survey evidence suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by an even stronger 240,000 in February, which should have been enough to bring the unemployment rate back down... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects hold down wage growth We expect a slightly stronger 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January. Base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%, but... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market close to full employment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 200,000 in December. And although the unemployment rate may have edged back up to 4.7%, this would still leave it below Fed officials’... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth has further to rise We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 180,000 in November, which was probably enough to cut the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Annual wage growth probably held steady at a seven... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still relatively subdued We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 190,000 in October. Given the recent rebound in labour force participation, however, we suspect that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Stronger payrolls may not be enough to cut unemployment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a slightly stronger 190,000 in September, but this would probably leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market remains in good health Our econometric model points to a healthy 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. As a result, the unemployment rate probably edged back down to 4.8%, from 4.9%. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July Our econometric model points to a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, thanks in part to the return of 35,000 Verizon workers who were excluded from the payroll survey in May. Under those... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Verizon strike to hit May payrolls hard Our econometric model points to a solid 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, but after we allow for the impact of the Verizon strike and other temporary factors, the actual gain in employment was... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome Our econometric model points to a more modest 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.0%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m gain in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview Our econometric model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.4% m/m gain in average... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of employment gains will inevitably slow Our econometric model points to a more muted 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, with the growth rate of average hourly... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects will temporarily depress wage growth Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
