US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather distortion fades Our econometric model suggests that, although the labour market has weakened since earlier in the year, conditions are not quite as bad as March’s Employment Report suggested. We expect a rebound in... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Effects of sequester hard to see, but likely to be small It’s going to be almost impossible to observe what impact the sequester government spending cuts is having on the labour market. But we expect it will be fairly small. In any case, it is too soon for... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Earnings growth won’t take off Our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 175,000 in February, which would leave employment growing at much the same pace as in recent months. Without a meaningful acceleration in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Sandy having lingering impact on labour market The lingering effects of superstorm Sandy mean that non-farm payroll employment probably increased in net terms by just 75,000 in November, which would be less than half the gain in October. The... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment data swept up in pre-election hoopla As the last major piece of economic news to be released before the Presidential election, October’s Employment Report will attract even more attention than normal, with both parties attempting to spin... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview No signs of faster jobs growth Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 100,000 in September, which would suggest that labour market conditions remain lacklustre. 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fiscal cliff may hit hiring Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in August, which would be disappointing after July’s 163,000 gain. What’s more, it is possible that in the... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Some signs of progress Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in July, which would be slightly better than the 80,000 gain in June. This would still mean that employment... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Past the worst? Our econometric model suggests that at least some of the recent softening in jobs growth was reversed in June, with non-farm payroll employment rising by around 125,000. That would be almost twice as... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Not another 2010 or 2011 We don’t think that the 120,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment in March, which was half February’s rise, is the start of a sustained period of substantially weaker jobs growth. Our econometric... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate will decline more gradually Our econometric model, which takes into account a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment rose by around 200,000 in March. That would be the fourth monthly increase of 200,000 or... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving The labour market appears to have strengthened markedly over the last few months, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a 10-month high of 243,000 in January and the unemployment rate falling to a... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Benchmark revision adds to the uncertainty After incorporating the “known knowns”, our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 150,000 in January, which would be less than December’s 200,000 gain. The “known unknowns” of the... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
