US Employment Report Preview Jump in wage growth not all due to base effects Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2%... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack rapidly shrinking Our econometric model points to a solid 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in November, although we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%. Base effects mean that even if... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth probably rebounded in October Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls rose by a stronger 200,000 in October, up from an average monthly gain of 167,000 over the prior three months. Whether that would be sufficient... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow… but that’s okay Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market showing “some” further improvement Our econometric model points to a more modest 220,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which would probably push the unemployment rate down to 5.2%, from 5.3%. That would seem to meet the Fed... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack continues to shrink Our econometric model points to a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July, although we suspect that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, as the labour force rebounds. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Model points to another big gain in payrolls Our econometric model points to a 290,000 gainin non-farm payrolls in May and, as a result, wealso expect the unemployment rate to edge downto 5.4%. 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market appears to be strengthening Our econometric model points to a 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May and we also expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.3%. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview March weakness unlikely to be repeated in April We don't think that the unexpectedly weak 126,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March signals the start of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Other indicators have remained at robust levels... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Decline in mining employment will be relatively modest Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in March. We anticipate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather and port dispute are downside risks Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by a slightly more modest 230,000 in February, down from an average monthly gain of 336,000 over the preceding three months. It is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A strong employment gain should trigger wages rebound Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in January, which would broadly match the increase in December. As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Another bumper report The latest evidence suggests that the impressive 321,000 rise in non-farm payroll employment in November was no fluke. We expect that it was followed by a gain of 300,000 in December. That would push... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Going from strength to strength There’s a good chance that October’s Employment Report will send a very strong signal that, despite the recent signs of some softening in overseas demand, the US economy continues to grow at a rapid... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown in job growth at odds with other evidence Our econometric model suggests that the recent slowdown in payroll employment growth is at odds with the strengthening in other measures of labour market conditions. As such, we expect that August’s... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
