US Employment Report Preview Blockbuster first quarter for employment We estimate that payroll employment expanded by 250,000 in March, as the disruption from the recent flu epidemic faded. That should push the unemployment rate down to 4.0%, an 18-year low. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls boosted by unwinding of weather distortion The strength of most labour market indicators suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in February. That should have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth set to resume upward trend in 2018 We estimate that payroll employment growth rebounded to an above-trend 200,000 in January. That may have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new cycle-low of 4.0%, which would provide... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Solid job gains will drive unemployment rate lower Our econometric model points to a 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, which would be well above the average monthly gain of 174,000 over the first 11 months of last year. Manufacturing... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep pressure on Fed We forecast a 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The latter will concern those Fed officials worried that diminishing... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls set to come storming back from hurricanes We are forecasting a huge 350,000 rebound in payroll employment in October, as the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are reversed. But the bigger picture remains that payroll employment growth will... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes will batter payroll figures The September employment report is likely to be affected heavily by the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Our best guess is that payrolls rose by around 100,000, about half of the gain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects We forecast a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August, and suspect that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below the current end-year projection of Fed officials. The surveys suggest it could... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep unemployment rate on downward trend We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, which should have been enough to push the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. As labour market conditions tighten further, we expect wage... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate likely to fall even further We estimate that the monthly gain in non-farm payrolls rebounded from 138,000 in May to 200,000 in June. The unemployment rate probably fell further, perhaps to as low as 4.1%. Meanwhile, base effects... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview How much further can the unemployment rate fall? We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 200,000 in May. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 4.4%, but the surveys suggest that it will fall further soon and the upward pressure on... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls get back on track We estimate that non-farm payroll employment recovered from last month’s weather-related blip with a robust 185,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate probably ticked back up to 4.6%, but this... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong start to 2017 unlikely to be sustained We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth slowed to a still-healthy 190,000 in March, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7% and annual wage growth holding steady at 2.8%. 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview January strength was no fluke The strength of the survey evidence suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by an even stronger 240,000 in February, which should have been enough to bring the unemployment rate back down... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects hold down wage growth We expect a slightly stronger 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January. Base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%, but... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market close to full employment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 200,000 in December. And although the unemployment rate may have edged back up to 4.7%, this would still leave it below Fed officials’... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
