US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 96.2 in March, from 94.0, suggests that the rebound in stock markets more than offset the impact of higher gasoline prices in... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.8% m/m decline in headline durable goods orders in February was partly due to a slump in the volatile commercial aircraft category. But even allowing for that, the details of the report suggest... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The decline in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to 90.0 in March, from 91.7, illustrates that higher gasoline prices more than offset the positive impact to sentiment from... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite lower gasoline prices weighing on headline CPI inflation, the much bigger story is the surge in core inflation to a four-year high of 2.3% in February, which illustrates that the Fed can’t... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Feb.) The February retail sales report was disappointing (taking account also of downward revisions to January data) and means that the risks to our forecast for first quarter-GDP growth of 2.5% annualised... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) With employment rising at a rapid pace and labour market slack still shrinking, we think the Fed will resume raising interest rates in June. A marked pick-up in wage growth is still notably absent... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) Despite the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a five-month high of 49.5 in February, from 48.2, the factory sector continues to be battered by the strong dollar and weak global demand. The... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 4.9% m/m increase in durable goods orders in January was flattered by a strong rebound in the notoriously volatile aircraft component, but details of the report bode well for equipment investment... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of confidence to an eight-month low of 92.2 in February, from 97.8 suggests that the financial market turmoil earlier in the month is beginning to weigh... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.9% m/m increase in industrial production in January, which more than reversed a 0.7% m/m decline in December, was mainly due to a weather-related snap back in utilities output. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The markets may have decided that the economy is heading for a recession, but obviously no-one told US consumers. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Although the 151,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January was below the consensus forecast of a 190,000 gain, the rest of the employment report was very encouraging, with the unemployment rate... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jan.) The decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 53.5, from 55.8 is disappointing, particularly as it continues a sharp downward trend from the peak of 59.6 last July. Fed officials will be concerned... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The modest increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in January from 48.0 is somewhat encouraging but, more broadly, the manufacturing sector is still struggling to cope with the stronger dollar... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to a very modest 0.7% annualised in the final quarter of last year is a temporary blip. With employment increasing by a monthly average of 284,000 during that quarter and... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
