US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 2.2% m/m rise in durable goods orders in September confirms that business equipment investment posted another big gain in the third quarter, while the survey evidence suggests that things could... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rebound in industrial production in September confirms that the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey in late August, which largely explains the 0.7% m/m fall in that month, is now being... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in September provides further evidence that the economy is bouncing back from the disruption caused by the hurricanes. Real consumption growth still looks to have slowed in... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m rise in headline consumer prices in September was driven by a spike in gasoline prices due to Hurricane Harvey, while there was a more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices. But the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 33,000 decline in non-farm payrolls in September was worse than the consensus forecast at 90,000 or our own 100,000 estimate but, frankly, all of us were waving a finger in the air and guessing... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing of the trade deficit to $42.4bn in August, from $43.6bn, provides further evidence that net trade was on course to make a small positive contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep.) The surge in the ISM non-manufacturing index is a clear sign that the economy is recovering quickly from any hurricane-related disruption and that the underlying pace of GDP growth remains strong. A... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Sep.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 13-year high of 60.8 in September, from 58.8, is the latest illustration of the benefit to the manufacturing sector from the weaker dollar and strong... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Headline durable goods orders rebounded partially in August, but the bigger news was the strong increases in non-defence capital goods orders and shipments. The latter suggests that business equipment... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The small drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September appears to be entirely due to the impact from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and is likely to be reversed in the coming... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Aug.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Sep.) Retail sales and industrial production both came in well below consensus expectations in August, although a lot of that weakness resulted from the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey toward the end... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s report confirms that the earlier decline in core CPI inflation was largely due to idiosyncratic factors that are now fading or going into reverse. We still don’t expect the Fed to hike... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug.) The trade deficit widened trivially to $43.7bn in July, from $43.5bn, but net external trade is still on course to provide a modest positive contribution of around 0.3% points to third-quarter GDP... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Aug.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-year high in August illustrates that, despite the softer pace of payroll employment growth, activity continued to expand at a healthy pace last... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report was disappointing across the board but given the potential seasonal problems – with weak initial readings in August subsequently revised higher in previous years – it isn’t... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The increase in consumer confidence in August is remarkable given the nuclear threat from North Korea and violent protests in Charlottesville. With labour market conditions still exceptionally tight... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
