US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The rebound in durable goods orders in January was entirely due to a strong rise in commercial aircraft orders. The underlying details of the report were a little disappointing, but the survey... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices, Retail Sales & Ind. Prod’n (Jan.) On balance, we still don’t think the Fed will raise interest rates at the March FOMC meeting, but the bigger than expected 0.6% m/m surge in consumer prices in January, which pushed the annual CPI... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The decline in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in February probably just represents some payback after the surge seen in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election victory in... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The marginal decline in the nominal trade deficit in December was broadly in line with expectations and confirms that net trade was a big drag on fourth-quarter GDP. But that fourth-quarter drag was... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January’s strong gain in non-farm payrolls suggests that the labour market started the year on a solid footing. However, the drop back in annual wage growth is another reason to think the Fed will... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.0 in January, from 54.5, confirms that the manufacturing recovery has continued into the New Year, and also suggests that GDP growth is set to rebound in... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January brings the index a little closer in line with other measures of confidence, and still leaves it consistent with... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) We would be wary of reading too much into the slowdown in GDP growth from 3.5% annualised in the third quarter to 1.9% in the fourth, because the temporary spike in soybean exports boosted the former... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec.) With the earlier sharp falls in energy prices now dropping out of the annual comparison, base effects helped to lift headline CPI inflation back above 2% in December, for the first time since mid-2014... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m gain in December’s retail sales appears healthy enough, but looking past the headline there are a few concerns about the strength of consumer spending. That headline gain was principally... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The more modest 156,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December suggests that labour market conditions weakened just a fraction in the closing stages of last year. Nevertheless, that is still a... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 54.7 in December, up from 53.2 the month before, is another indication that the negative impact stemming from the big surge in the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable G’ds & Pers. Income & Spending (Nov.) November’s durable goods and personal spending reports are consistent with our existing forecast that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a more modest 2.2% annualised, following an upwardly revised 3.5... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Base effects helped push headline CPI inflation up to 1.7% in November, from 1.6%, but the muted rise in core consumer prices, which left core CPI inflation unchanged at 2.1%, suggests that underlying... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov.) The trivial rise in headline retail sales in November is partly some payback after the very strong gains in recent months. Nonetheless, real consumption growth is now likely to be a more modest 2.0%... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December, to its highest level in almost two years, suggests that the post-election rebound in sentiment has been sustained. It... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
