US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in January isn't a huge surprise following the rapid growth at the end of last year. Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, however... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker tone of the January retail sales report, which showed a stagnation in underlying sales and downward revisions to previous months, suggests that real consumption growth is set to slow in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in January, but the bigger story was the broad-based 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices. In three-month annualised terms, core inflation climbed to a... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) Despite the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $53.1bn in December, from $50.4bn, a continued acceleration in real export growth should ensure that net trade is, at worst, neutral... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which was above the consensus estimate but in line with our own forecast, leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise rates in March. And with signs that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in January left it well above historical averages and consistent with GDP growth of over 4% annualised. With domestic demand receiving a boost from tax... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January, which beat consensus expectations but was roughly in line with our own estimate, suggests that real consumption growth... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slight slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter means the economy fell just short of the 3% growth targeted by the White House, but it was entirely due to a huge drag from inventories and net... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite the small decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in January, the index still points to consumption growth remaining close to 4% annualised. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.9% m/m surge in industrial production in December was mostly due to a spike in utilities and stronger mining activity. Even so, underlying growth in manufacturing output remains strong and there... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 0.4% m/m rise in headline retail sales in December was in line with expectations, but the continued strength of underlying sales suggests that real consumption growth accelerated sharply in the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December will reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in March and supports our view that the Fed will ultimately increase interest rates by a more... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Internat’l Trade (Nov.) The slightly disappointing 148,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December will not prevent the Fed from continuing to normalise interest rates, with the next hike probably coming in March. 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 59.7 in December, from 58.2, leaves it close to a 13-year high and at a level that historically has been consistent with GDP growth accelerating to more... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods / Personal Income & Spending (Nov.) The strong gains in real consumption and durable goods in November suggest that the economic expansion maintained its recent impressive vigour into the end of 2017. GDP growth looks to have been close... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The softer 0.2% m/m gain in industrial production in November was little surprise following the upwardly-revised 1.2% m/m surge the previous month. In any case, with the disruption from the hurricanes... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
