US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.8% m/m rise in headline retail sales in November was a lot better than consensus expectations and, together with the upward revision to October’s gain, suggests that real consumption growth has... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer prices increased by a robust 0.4% m/m in November, albeit mainly due to a 7.3% m/m surge in gasoline prices, with core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.1% m/m... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Although the University of Michigan consumer confidence index declined in December, against consensus expectations of a small rise, the index remains at a high level by past standards and consistent... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly bigger than expected 228,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November all but guarantees another 25bp interest rate hike by the Fed next week, particularly with the unemployment rate... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The widening in the trade deficit in October was driven by a large fall in soybean exports, which appears unlikely to be reversed over the next month or two. Together with the continued strength of... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in November, which mirrors the drop back in the regional Fed surveys and the alternative Markit PMI, still leaves it at an elevated level consistent... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a new 17-year high provides further reason to think that real consumption growth is set to accelerate. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The fall in durable goods orders in October was entirely driven by a drop back in the volatile transport category. The underlying details suggest that business equipment investment continues to expand... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Manufacturing shakes off hurricane-related disruption The 1.3% m/m surge in manufacturing output in October, the biggest monthly gain in six months, mainly reflects the return to normalcy after the disruption caused by the hurricanes in late August and... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Despite the subdued 0.2% m/m gain in headline retail sales in October, which was still above the consensus forecast of no change, the underlying details suggest that real consumption growth has picked... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) A drop back in energy prices last month pushed headline down to 2.0% from 2.2%, but there are clear signs that underlying price pressures are on the rise again. Core inflation increased for the first... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite the fall in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to 97.8 in November, from 100.7, it remains close to its highest level in many years, suggesting that real consumption is set... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The smaller than expected 261,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in October, which was below the 310,000 consensus forecast, isn’t as disappointing as it looks when the cumulative 90,000 upward... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The small drop back in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October from a 13-year high is little to worry about, and it still suggests that manufacturing output will rebound in the fourth quarter. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a near 17-year high in October suggests that, following the slightly softer 2.4% annualised gain in real consumption in the third quarter... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The 3.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP, which was almost unchanged from the 3.1% increase in the second, will be welcomed by the White House and demonstrates that the hurricanes ended up having... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
