US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The big drop in headline durable goods orders in July is nothing to worry about, since it was entirely due to a drop back in orders in the volatile aircraft category. The more important news was that... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The sharp increase in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August takes it back to the highs seen earlier in the year, and is a sign that consumption growth will remain strong over... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in July, which included a 0.1% m/m decline in manufacturing output, was a little weaker than we had expected. That said, with industrial production rising at... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The strong gain in retail sales in July, together with the upward revisions to May and June data support our forecast that third-quarter GDP growth will be between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. With jobs... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The weakness in core CPI inflation persisted in July, although transitory factors continued to play a sizeable role. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, together with the drop back in the unemployment rate to a joint 16-year low, suggests the Fed will still need to raise rates again this year, even if... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.) Despite the small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July, the index is still above its average level in the second quarter and is consistent, on past form, with GDP growth of over 3%... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in real GDP in the second quarter was driven by a rebound in real consumption growth, and suggests that the economy is still on track to grow by around 2.2% in 2017 as a whole... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 6.5% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in June was flattered by a 131% surge in the ever-volatile commercial aircraft category. But the underlying details were also fairly encouraging and... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The small rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index in July takes it to its second highest reading in 16 years, and suggests that consumption growth will accelerate in the second half of... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.) Production data for June confirm that the industrial sector saw its biggest quarterly expansion for three years in the second quarter. Furthermore, while the retail sales and confidence data, also... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 1.7%, continues the recent run of soft inflation data. Earlier this week, Chair... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June) The 222,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which was well above the consensus forecast at 179,000 and even our own more upbeat 200,000 estimate, is another illustration that the real economy is in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.) Despite the small narrowing of the trade deficit, from $47.6bn in April to $46.5bn in May, net trade still looks to have been a small drag on GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the non... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.8 in June, from 54.9, leaves it at its highest level in nearly three years and supports our view that annualised GDP growth has rebounded quite strongly... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The continued strength of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which rose from 117.6 to 118.9 in June, is beginning to look a little suspect when other measures have fallen back in recent... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
