US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was weaker than expected, but confirms that business equipment investment enjoyed a strong first quarter. 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The small fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in April only partly reversed the surge in March, and left the index close to a 16-year high. As such, it does little to change... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m increase in March industrial production was almost entirely due to a weather-related 8.6%m/m bounce back in utilities output. After a near-record warm February, when heating demand fell... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Core inflation and retail sales both weak Some Fed officials will be disturbed by the unexpected drop back in core CPI inflation in March, but this won't prevent a June rate hike, particularly as the fall was partly due to one-off changes and... 14th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The small increase in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a three-month high in April is further evidence that household spending growth will rebound in the second quarter. 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointing 98,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March will be seized upon by the usual suspects as confirmation that the US economy is poised for collapse, but the truth is this is mostly... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The trade deficit narrowed sharply in February to $43.6bn, from $48.2bn in January, as the surge in imports from China ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday was reversed. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index in March is a little disappointing given the recent strength of the regional surveys, but still leaves the index close to a two-year high and suggests... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The surge in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to its highest level in more than 16 years suggests that the apparent weakness of real consumption growth in the first quarter will prove... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.7% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in February was helped by another strong rise in commercial aircraft orders, but the improvement in underlying orders provides further evidence that... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Mar.) The stagnation in industrial production in February was entirely due to another weather-related contraction in utilities output, with activity in the mining and manufacturing sectors continuing to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Feb.) A drop back in gasoline prices restricted consumer prices to a more modest 0.1% m/m gain in February, but unfavourable base effects nevertheless pushed the annual CPI inflation rate up to a five-year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 235,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February will erase any lingering doubts that the Fed might not hike interest rates next week. It will also be greeted with a cheer from the White House. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in January to its highest level in almost five years appears to have been partly due to distortions caused by the earlier than normal Chinese New Year Holiday... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Feb.), Income & Spending (Jan.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in February suggests that the factory sector is experiencing a resurgence after the weakness over the past couple of years. It also suggests that GDP growth is... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in February leaves the index at a 15-year high and suggests that consumption growth will remain robust. 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
