US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The softness in underlying durable goods orders in May suggests that business equipment investment expanded at a much slower pace in the second quarter. Nonetheless, we still estimate that second... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The drop in the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence to a seven-month low in June isn’t overly concerning as confidence had been unusually elevated for some time. In any case, the index... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The stagnation in industrial production in May is nothing to worry about since it follows a large gain in April, which itself was revised higher. Admittedly, recent falls in the oil price have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (May) The continued weakness of core inflation, which fell to a two-year low of 1.7% in May, presents a dilemma for Fed officials. It won’t stop them from hiking interest rates later today, but it increases... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) & Internat’l Trade (Apr.) With the unemployment rate dropping to a 17-year low, the Fed will continue to hike interest rates even though trend employment growth has slowed and core inflation remains stubbornly below target. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed at a fairly healthy level in May, suggesting that economic growth is still on track to rebound to 3% annualised in the second quarter. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response CB Cons. Confidence (May), Income & Spending (Apr.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in May is nothing to be worried about because the index is still at a very high level. Taken together with the personal... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) & Q1 GDP (2nd Est.) The weakness in April’s durable goods figures suggest that the 7.2% annualised increase in equipment investment the first quarter is unlikely to be repeated in the second. Nevertheless, allowing for a... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The bigger than expected 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in April was mainly due to an encouraging 1.0% m/m gain in manufacturing output. (Consensus forecast was 0.4% m/m.) 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (May) The small increase in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence leaves it at a level consistent with consumption growth rebounding to over 5% annualised in the second quarter. Spending... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) The weakness in core CPI inflation, which dropped below 2% in April for the first time since October 2015, will give Fed officials some pause for thought. But with the unemployment rate at a decade... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The robust 211,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in April confirms that the more modest 79,000 increase in March was just a weather-related blip. With both the official and the broader U6... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The very modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.7bn in March, from a revised $43.8bn, confirms that net trade provided a small boost to first-quarter GDP growth. 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Fed leaves door open to June rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged today, but the statement kept the door open to another rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. We still expect another three 25bp hikes from the Fed this year... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr.), Income & Spending (Mar.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index in April is not a huge worry since the index is still well above its average over the past two years and at a level historically consistent with 3% GDP... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The trivial 0.7% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, below the consensus forecast at 1.2%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates again in June. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
