US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Although it fell in April, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index remains at a high level by past standards and suggests that the slowdown in spending growth at the start of this year... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rebound in core CPI inflation to a 13-month high of 2.1% in March, from 1.8%, was partly driven by base effects. But the recent strengthening of monthly price pressures suggests that core... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The modest 103,000 gain in payroll employment in March, which follows a massive 326,000 gain in February, is a good illustration of the inherent volatility in the non-farm payroll data. The March gain... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to a near-decade high of $57.6bn in February, from $56.7bn, was entirely due to a one-off royalty payment for broadcasting rights to the Winter Olympics. But net... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in March, together with the weaker incoming activity data, will add to worries that the economy is slowing. But the index is still at a level... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in March from an 18-year high in February leaves the index still well above its historical average. The relationship between... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The strong rise in durable goods orders in February was flattered by a rebound in transport orders, but the details showed an encouraging rebound in underlying capital goods orders. That suggests the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Mar.) The strong rebound in industrial production in February was driven by an even larger gain in manufacturing output, and illustrates that the softer start to the year was just a blip. Meanwhile, the... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m drop in headline retail sales in February was partly driven by weakness in autos and a price-related drop back in gasoline sales, but underlying sales were nevertheless subdued and... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m in February, extending the run of firmer monthly gains and pushing the three-month annualised core inflation rate up to a decade high of 3.1%... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The massive 313,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February, the biggest in 18 months, together with the 54,000 upward revision to gains in the preceding two months, illustrates that the economy is... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $56.6bn in January, from $53.9bn, suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter, and will only add... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in February to a 13-year high suggests that activity growth is set to pick up following a soft start to the year. On past form, the index is consistent with... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The surge in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 130.8 in February, from 124.3, underlines that household sentiment has not been knocked by the recent bout of stock... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Fed Chair Powell Testimony The sharp fall in durable goods orders in January wasn’t quite as bad as it looks, as it was mainly driven by a plunge in both defence and commercial aircraft orders. But the details still suggest... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The strong rise in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February may be the first sign of the boost to consumers from lower taxes and suggests that, even if consumption growth slows... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
