US Chart Pack Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect of a major fiscal stimulus next year, at a time when the economy is already close to full employment. The subsequent surge in Treasury yields... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth A marked gap has opened up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which has... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption growth will inevitably slow The stagnation in retail sales in July was not entirely surprising. Following the 4.2% annualised surge in real consumption in the second quarter, it was inevitable that spending growth would ease to... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% annualised, thanks primarily to a massive 4.5% surge in real consumption. The latter would mark the biggest quarterly gain... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth looks good Despite the apparent slowdown in the labour market, the latest activity data point to a solid rebound in second-quarter GDP growth. Growth in underlying retail sales reached a two-year high in May... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound The recent activity data indicate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.8% annualised. However, we expect this to prove only a temporary setback rather than the start of a more serious... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed can’t ignore pick-up in core inflation much longer It is becoming increasingly apparent that many Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which inflation will rise in the second half of the year. Fed officials expect core PCE inflation will... 28th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic price pressures building The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near-zero levels... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation to remain below 2% for longer The external deflationary pressure from the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices is persisting for longer than we expected. The lower profile for energy prices now means that headline inflation... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market conditions brighten in October The 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls last month puts to rest fears that the earlier slowdown could be the start of a worrying downturn. The decline in the unemployment to 5.0% in October leaves it... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data point to slowdown in GDP growth Our calculations now suggest that GDP growth slowed to only 1.5% annualised in the third quarter. Even after the disappointment of September’s retail sales figures, third-quarter consumption growth... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy not at risk from modest China slowdown Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
