US Chart Pack Economy doing well ahead of stimulus After back to back quarters of 3% plus growth, the economy is on track to expand by close to 3% annualised in the final quarter of the year as well. Consumption growth is rebounding, with control... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflationary pressures starting to re-emerge Core CPI inflation was subdued at 1.8% in October, but there were signs that the transitory factors weighing on core inflation earlier this year are now starting to fade. Medical care price inflation... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy rebounding from hurricane disruption Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation showing signs of resurgence The V-shaped rebound in the three-month annualised rate confirms the slump in core CPI inflation that began in the spring was mostly due to transitory factors, which are now fading. The annual core... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter rebound driven by consumer spending The latest data indicate that GDP growth has rebounded to nearly 3% annualised in the second quarter, mainly due to a similar-sized gain in real consumption growth. Indeed, although underlying retail... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data make the Fed’s job more difficult The latest decline in the core CPI inflation rate to 1.9% in April, at the same time as the unemployment rate dropped to a decade low of 4.4%, presents a dilemma for the Fed. The price stability part... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation restrained by new competitive pressures The drop back in core CPI inflation to a 17-month low of 2.0% in March was partly due to weather effects, but also reflects an increase in competitive pressures in some sectors, which will persist for... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys suggest economy is on the right track The activity data for January and February suggest that the economy got off to a slow start to the year. Our calculations suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will be a modest 2% annualised... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation gives Fed less wiggle room The rise in CPI inflation to a five-year high of 2.5% in January was principally due to a surge in gasoline prices, which appears to have been partly reversed in February. Nevertheless, with headline... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack America first President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech left no one in any doubt that his administration will pursue trade protectionism aggressively. He argued for putting “America first” and that “protection... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to solid GDP growth The survey evidence has strengthened considerably in recent months and even though fourth-quarter GDP growth will probably fall back to 2.2% annualised, as the third-quarter spike in exports is... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect of a major fiscal stimulus next year, at a time when the economy is already close to full employment. The subsequent surge in Treasury yields... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth A marked gap has opened up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which has... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read