US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second quarter rebound led by consumption After a disappointing first quarter, our calculations suggest that annualised GDP growth will rebound to more than 4% in the second quarter, driven by a big turnaround in consumption growth. Even... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising rates a headwind for the economy The continued surge in market interest rates will become an increasing headwind for the economy, especially next year when the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Admittedly, the level of interest rates... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Good Trump, Bad Trump The apparent slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, to between 2.0% and 2.5% annualised, is likely to be reversed as the boost from the recent fiscal stimulus outweighs any hit from... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Another ugly first quarter? The early activity data for January have come in below expectations, raising the possibility that economic growth may once again disappoint in the first quarter. Both industrial production and... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation could be the big story in 2018 The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December provided clearer evidence that the forces weighing on core inflation last year are now firmly in reverse. Admittedly, core CPI inflation... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy doing well ahead of stimulus After back to back quarters of 3% plus growth, the economy is on track to expand by close to 3% annualised in the final quarter of the year as well. Consumption growth is rebounding, with control... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflationary pressures starting to re-emerge Core CPI inflation was subdued at 1.8% in October, but there were signs that the transitory factors weighing on core inflation earlier this year are now starting to fade. Medical care price inflation... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy rebounding from hurricane disruption Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation showing signs of resurgence The V-shaped rebound in the three-month annualised rate confirms the slump in core CPI inflation that began in the spring was mostly due to transitory factors, which are now fading. The annual core... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter rebound driven by consumer spending The latest data indicate that GDP growth has rebounded to nearly 3% annualised in the second quarter, mainly due to a similar-sized gain in real consumption growth. Indeed, although underlying retail... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data make the Fed’s job more difficult The latest decline in the core CPI inflation rate to 1.9% in April, at the same time as the unemployment rate dropped to a decade low of 4.4%, presents a dilemma for the Fed. The price stability part... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation restrained by new competitive pressures The drop back in core CPI inflation to a 17-month low of 2.0% in March was partly due to weather effects, but also reflects an increase in competitive pressures in some sectors, which will persist for... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
