US Chart Pack Economy nearing a turning point The latest activity data suggest that economic growth will slow to just 1.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.9% in the third, but there are growing hopes that may prove to be the nadir. Much... 20th November 2019 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears ease, but GDP growth still slowing The news of an apparent trade “deal” between the US and China has pushed back the threat of further tariffs and helped to un-invert the yield curve, but economic growth still appears to be slowing... 21st October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation rebound complicates the Fed’s task The Fed will look through any rise in headline inflation resulting from the recent jump in crude oil prices, but the acceleration in core CPI inflation, to an 11-year high in August, is harder to... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy shrugging off recession fears The further inversion of the yield curve – with the 10-2 year spread briefly inverting last week – has heightened fears that a recession is coming soon, but the real economy shows few signs of any... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy holding up on eve of rate cut The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, despite some better news on the real economy. Payroll employment growth was much stronger than expected in June... 17th July 2019 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Services slipping as manufacturing stabilises There are tentative signs that US and global manufacturing may be stabilising, but the latest surveys suggest that activity in the domestic-focused services sector is weakening. 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic weakness adds to global concerns With the global outlook continuing to darken, the US had until recently remained a relative bright spot. But the latest data suggest that outperformance may have been short-lived. January’s drop in... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Shutdown clouds the near-term outlook The Federal government shutdown has made it harder than usual to judge how the economy is performing, but the data that have been released have been fairly upbeat. The surge in payroll employment and... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong domestic economy will keep the Fed hiking Despite the darkening global backdrop, the continued strength of the US economy will be enough for the Fed to raise interest rates as planned in December. Fed officials have acknowledged the weakness... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
