US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industrial recovery gathering momentum The weather-related slump in activity in the first quarter persuaded many that the US economic recovery would remain lacklustre. The fundamentals look a lot better now, however, with credit... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to bounce back in Q2 The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Threat from twin deficits quietly fades The current account and Federal budget deficits have narrowed markedly over the past few years, indicating that the US economy is the closest it has been to both internal and external balance in more... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Falling unemployment rate forces Fed into rethink With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, leaving it only trivially above the 6.5% threshold, the Fed will soon need to update its forward guidance on when it might begin to raise the fed... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery becomes more resilient Our estimate that GDP grew at a decent annualised rate of 3.5% in the fourth quarter even though activity was hit by the Federal government shutdown and the unusually bad weather suggests that the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economic growth grinding higher The pick-up in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the third quarter, from 2.5% in the second, suggests that as the fiscal drag fades, the recovery is strengthening. On the whole, the latest monthly data... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policy uncertainty will persist for some time Congress has thankfully agreed to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling, but the short-term fix means that fiscal uncertainty will continue to act as a drag on the economic recovery... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery appears to be gathering pace The Fed's apparently isn't convinced yet, but the improvement evident in many of the key forward-looking indicators suggests that economic growth is accelerating. The surge in both the manufacturing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Higher rates unlikely to derail recovery We doubt that the rapid rise in long-term interest rates in recent weeks will derail the economic recovery. For a start, rates are still at unusually low levels. Moreover, the primary reason why the... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility The fall in inflation to well below the Fed's 2% target rate is another reason why the central bank will be in no hurry to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases. Headline CPI inflation fell to... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown unlikely to be severe If the economy has entered another spring slowdown, we doubt it will be as severe as in recent years. Admittedly, the latest news on employment and retail sales suggests that the economy lost some... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
