US Chart Pack Q2 GDP growth may not be as bad as feared Despite a marked slowdown in consumption growth to less than 1% annualised, it appears that overall GDP growth may actually have picked up a little to 2.3% in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation on the rise The acceleration in core inflation suggests that the threat of deflation has eased significantly, at least for a while, which is one of the key reasons why we don't expect the Fed to respond to the... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking The lagged effect of the rapid run-up in commodity prices over the past year will push CPI inflation up from 3.1% in April to close to 4% by the summer. But now that the upward trend in commodity... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack How bad was first-quarter GDP growth? The latest consensus forecast still puts first-quarter GDP growth as high as 1.8% annualised, whereas our own calculations suggest it was no higher than 1.0%. (See Chart below.) Furthermore, despite... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market slowly recovering The labour market is finally showing signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate falling sharply from 9.8% last November to 8.9% this February. That decline, however, owes more to a large exodus... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Improving activity surveys points to strong first half The economic outlook appears to have improved recently, with both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices improving to multi-year highs in January. We certainly anticipate a strong first... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising commodity prices having mixed effects Rapidly rising commodity prices are beginning to have a marked impact on inflation, real spending and the external trade balance. Over the past six months, agricultural commodity prices have increased... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack 2010 ends on a high Annualised GDP growth is on course to accelerate to around 4% in the fourth quarter, from 2.5% in the third. Moreover, the new fiscal stimulus means that we now expect growth to average 3% in 2011... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Emerging from the summer slowdown The economy appears to have emerged from its summer soft patch, with the growth of employment and retail sales both accelerating at the start of the fourth quarter. But economic growth is still... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Moving closer to deflation The US economy moved a bit closer to deflation in September, when core consumer prices were unchanged for the second month in a row and the annual growth rate fell to a 49-year low of just 0.8%. (See... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Third quarter growth unlikely to be sustained (Sep 10) 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
