US Chart Pack Housing continues to strengthen Amid all the serious downside risks to the economic outlook, including the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff negotiations and the possibility of a resurgence of the crisis in the euro-zone, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumers rally, while businesses run scared The US economy has developed something of a split personality lately, with consumer confidence hitting a five-year high, while capital goods orders, an indicator of business investment, fall at a pace... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy hit by global slowdown The global economic slowdown appears to be having a more marked impact on the US economy, with exports falling sharply in July and manufacturing output dropping in August. The survey evidence now... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Businesses becoming increasingly cautious The sharp downturn in capital goods orders suggests that the continuing euro-zone crisis and growing uncertainty about the outlook for US fiscal policy are having an increasingly marked impact on... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall Headline CPI inflation dropped below the Fed's 2% target rate in May for the first time in 16 months and, with gasoline prices still falling, it looks like it could be down to around 1.5% within... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery standing firm So far there is little evidence that the recent softening in economic growth is developing into a more significant slowdown. The leading index and a weighted average of the two ISM activity indices... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market stalls The modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in March, half the pace of job creation in February, prompted fears that the recovery could be faltering again. The rise in weekly initial... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation still set to fall The recent rise in gasoline prices won’t prevent inflation from falling, but it will limit just how far and fast it drops. What’s more, evidence of a strengthening in underlying price pressures... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to slow again in first quarter It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply in 2012 We expect the rapid run up in CPI inflation this year to be completely reversed next year, although the core inflation rate will fall more modestly. 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Euro mess is by far the biggest risk to US outlook There is an incredible amount of uncertainty surrounding what impact a euro-zone recession and the potential break up of the single currency could have on the US economy and financial markets. The... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Faster Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our latest calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised in the third quarter, more than double the rate in the second. The rebound in spending on motor vehicles as the Japanese... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policymakers running out of options Even if another recession is avoided, the economic recovery is going to remain unusually lacklustre. It seems unlikely that a divided Congress will pass much of President Obama's $450bn stimulus plan... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slowdown becomes more sinister The economic slowdown appears to have developed into something more sustained and perhaps even more sinister. The recent plunge in equity prices, the possibility that jobs growth will flounder and a... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read