US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Election and virus cloud the near-term outlook After rebounding by 30% annualised in the third quarter, we expect a more modest 4.5% gain in GDP in the fourth. But recent data suggest the risks to that forecast could lie to the upside, with... 22nd October 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Pace of recovery begins to slow The pace of economic recovery has slowed in the last month, but that is arguably still an impressive result given the surge in coronavirus cases over the summer, and the more recent expiry of the... 17th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation has further to run Although core CPI inflation remains muted at 1.6% in July, the surge in prices last month specifically could be the start of a more significant rebound, as the added costs and ongoing supply... 18th August 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Recovery entering more gradual phase The rapid recovery in activity in May and June means that, after contracting by close to 30% annualised in the second quarter, GDP is already on course for a big rebound in the third quarter. But... 23rd July 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Consumers wasting little time as lockdowns ease The 17.7% m/m jump in retail sales in May showed that consumer spending is recovering far quicker than most had expected as lockdowns have eased, with headline retail sales reversing their April drop... 18th June 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Lockdowns shutter one fifth of the economy The latest hard data suggest economic activity was running 20% below February levels in April, a far sharper downturn than the 2008/09 financial crisis and one compressed into just two months. With... 19th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus deals unprecedented blow to activity The early hard data for March confirmed an unprecedented hit to economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic, with retail sales seeing the sharpest monthly fall in the survey’s 30-year history and... 16th April 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus chaos moving from markets to economy The past couple of weeks have been dominated by the financial market impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with equity markets continuing to plummet, the dollar surging and signs of strain persisting in... 19th March 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Near-term shocks won’t knock economy off course Although the Boeing shutdown and the coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to the economy in the first quarter, there are mounting signs that underlying momentum in the economy is strengthening. We... 19th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Looser financial conditions to drive 2020 recovery GDP growth appears to have slowed slightly, to between 1.5% and 2.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the more stable global backdrop and the lagged impact of this year’s loosening in financial... 19th December 2019 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy nearing a turning point The latest activity data suggest that economic growth will slow to just 1.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.9% in the third, but there are growing hopes that may prove to be the nadir. Much... 20th November 2019 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears ease, but GDP growth still slowing The news of an apparent trade “deal” between the US and China has pushed back the threat of further tariffs and helped to un-invert the yield curve, but economic growth still appears to be slowing... 21st October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation rebound complicates the Fed’s task The Fed will look through any rise in headline inflation resulting from the recent jump in crude oil prices, but the acceleration in core CPI inflation, to an 11-year high in August, is harder to... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy shrugging off recession fears The further inversion of the yield curve – with the 10-2 year spread briefly inverting last week – has heightened fears that a recession is coming soon, but the real economy shows few signs of any... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
