US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Uncertainty over Fed’s reaction function We are confident in our new forecasts that GDP growth will be a disappointing 2.7% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, while core inflation remains elevated at close to 3%, but we are less confident in our... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply shortages getting worse The strength of demand coupled with supply constraints have made shortages of many goods even worse, with the inventory to sales ratio falling to a record low in March. The surge in job openings and... 18th May 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply struggling to keep up with red-hot demand The latest round of stimulus cheques and the easing of restrictions are driving a renewed resurgence in demand, with retail sales jumping by nearly 10% in March and the regional manufacturing surveys... 19th April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation to rise above 2% and stay there Base effects will temporarily drive headline and core CPI inflation up sharply over the coming months but, with underlying price pressures also starting to mount, we expect core CPI inflation to... 17th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Strong start sets the tone for the rest of 2021 The economy has started 2021 on a stronger footing than we anticipated. The 5.3% surge in retail sales last month underlined just how quickly stimulus cheques fed through to stronger spending on big... 19th February 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Soft patch unlikely to last much longer Recent data show the current wave of virus infections weighing on the economy, with retail sales falling again in December and the labour market recovery stalling. We think fourth-quarter GDP growth... 21st January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Election and virus cloud the near-term outlook After rebounding by 30% annualised in the third quarter, we expect a more modest 4.5% gain in GDP in the fourth. But recent data suggest the risks to that forecast could lie to the upside, with... 22nd October 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Pace of recovery begins to slow The pace of economic recovery has slowed in the last month, but that is arguably still an impressive result given the surge in coronavirus cases over the summer, and the more recent expiry of the... 17th September 2020 · 8 mins read