US Chart Pack June data mixed, but Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% After a strong May, economic activity was more mixed in June. Nevertheless, it was still solid enough to re-affirm our view that the economy rebounded robustly in the second quarter. Even after the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence of Q2 rebound still mixed We still firmly believe that the weakness of first-quarter GDP was principally due to the unseasonably severe winter, the meltdown in the shale oil industry and possibly some seasonal quirks too. In... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in productivity growth could be pivotal Fed officials haven't had a lot to say about the slump in productivity growth but, just as the upsurge in productivity growth in the 1990s was crucial in allowing the Fed to leave rates lower for... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumer confidence soaring While financial markets are concerned that the slump in energy prices and the drop back in long-term interest rates partly reflect the weakness of economic growth in Europe and Asia, consumers have no... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industrial recovery gathering momentum The weather-related slump in activity in the first quarter persuaded many that the US economic recovery would remain lacklustre. The fundamentals look a lot better now, however, with credit... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to bounce back in Q2 The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
